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New betting market: How many cabinet ministers will lose their seats?

January 27th, 2015

Betfair Sportsbook’s ever expanding range of new markets has got an interesting one up.

How many of the current cabinet will lose their seats at the general election?

0 9/2
1 3/1
2 2/1
3 4/1
4 6/1
5 10/1
6 20/
7 40/1
8 50/1
9 66/1
10 Or More 100

Clearly the most vulnerable are the five Lib Dems and Education Secretary, Nicky Morgan, whose Loughborough seat is a marginal. Carmichael and Cable look pretty secure. Ed Davey should be OK in Kingston giving the recent Ashcroft poll.

Clegg might have a fight on his hands in Hallam where last month’s Ashcroft poll had him just 3% ahead. and there’s little doubt Danny Alexander is under real pressure in Inverness.

My guess is that the best bet with Betfair sportsbook is 1.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble





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Survation test a constituency specific question in its new Mirror poll and get a slightly different outcome

January 27th, 2015


Wikimedia

An unusual feature of the new Survation poll for the Daily Mirror is that, partly at my suggestion, it used the two stage voting question similar to that which we see in the Ashcroft marginals polling.

After the standard one was put the sample was asked to think specifically about the candidates likely to be standing in their seats and which one would they choose. The options were not the parties but were in the format of “the XYZ party candidate”.

Interestingly this produced a slightly different outcome to the standard figure which is in brackets:

CON 30.7 (31.4)
LAB 31.1 (30.4)
LD 7 (7)
UKIP 21.4 (22.6)
GRN 3.2 (3.2)

So a minuscule changes but at the top a different party ahead. Certainly the level of the change was on nothing like the scale that we see in some of the Ashcroft single constituency marginals polling.

Maybe this is because voters in the marginals can, even at this stage before the election, have a greater level of awareness about the election than voters in constituencies that are not marginals. More than 80% of responders in national polls do not vote in marginals.

My view is that this close to the election that there should be only one question and that should be constituency specific getting people to think about the candidates. After all in general elections the actual choice is for an individual to be our MP not a party.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Tories take the lead with Survation for the first time in this Parliament – UPDATE – ComRes phone poll has the Tories ahead for the first time since Sep 2011

January 26th, 2015

This is the first in a series of monthly polling for the Mirror between now and the election.

UKIP will be delighted to be in the 20s, albeit with a pollster that has generally been the most favourable to UKIP. The Tories will be delighted to be in the lead for the first time with Survation in this parliament, but in the context of things, they are polling at the same level as their 1997 nadir.

Survation haven’t picked up high Green figures that other pollsters have. The Lib Dem national polling fall that we saw with Ashcroft today has been reflected here.

Methodology note  Survation interviewed 1,014 Great British adults online about a range of political issues. Fieldwork was conducted on Sunday 25 January.

UPDATE – ComRes phone polls sees the Tories in the lead for the first time since September 2011

Like Survation the Tories are polling at the same level as their 1997 nadir. But we’ve had a few different pollsters this month having the Tories ahead. I still think the national polling is still probably neck and neck, but the Tories will be heartened by the second different pollster today having them ahead.

This is another poll showing the Greens doing well, and on snapping at the heels of the Lib Dems. Last month the Lib Dems were 7 points ahead of the Greens, this month they are only 1% ahead of the Greens.

The supplementaries

Three in five people (59 per cent) say that when deciding how they will vote, the parties’ policies on healthcare and the NHS will matter more to them than those on the economy. One in three (34 per cent) say that policies on the economy will be more important than those on health.

David Cameron has a 1% lead over Ed Miliband NHS funding. Some 29 per cent say they trust the Prime Minister to ensure the NHS has enough money, while 65 per cent disagree. Some 28 per cent trust the Labour leader, while 65 per cent disagree.

For those Labour strategists hoping to make the NHS central to the election campaign, this finding will be worrying, though it is probably further testament to people generally preferring David Cameron over Ed Miliband.

Methodology note, ComRes interviewed 1,001 GB adults by telephone between 23rd and 25th January 2015. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

TSE

UPDATE II



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Two Mondays ago the Populus and the Ashcroft had an 11 point gap over the LAB lead

January 26th, 2015

Today there’s 1 point gap

Mondays have become the biggest polling day of the week witch at least three new surveys being reported. In the morning we get Populus online, the afternoon Lord Ashcroft and the normal YouGov in the evening. Today we’ve got a new London YouGov survey for the Evening Standard (see below).

But the big picture that was being portrayed very differently two weeks ago has the pollsters coming into line – LAB 1% ahead with Populus and level-pegging with Ashcroft

The Ashcroft survey has CON 31+2, LAB 32+4, LD 6 -3, GRN 11-2, UKIP 15=. That fall for the yellows is a real shocker and must give hope to the blue team which has been relying on easy pickings from the LDs to make up for potential losses to LAB. The problem is that an LD collapse in LAB-CON marginals probably helps Miliband’s team most.

So where are we? Well the position is little changed from before Christmas apart from the Greens edging up a notch.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Interesting new leaders’ betting market – but where’s the value?

January 26th, 2015

Which of ED/Nick/Dave/Nige/Alex will do worst in their seats?

This clearly is a competition between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage and my inclination would be the latter. Thanet South looks as though it will be a tighter contest than Sheffield Hallam.

Which of ED/Nick/Dave/Nige/Alex will do best in their seats?

This is a hard one because nobody really knows what the scale of the SNP surge will be by the time we get to May 7th. If it is on the lines of the recent Ipsos-MORI poll then Salmond, with his high name recognition will do very well.

The Cameron price looks value given he got 58.8% in Witney at GE10. But he’s very vulnerable to UKIP and other parties that he might well get below 50%. Last month’s Doncaster North poll from Lord Ashcroft had EdM on 54%.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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With Scotland looking so difficult Labour’s big hope is the English battleground

January 26th, 2015

Mapping where the main action will be

If the two main parties are level-pegging in England then that represents a swing of 5.7% on the last general election so, all the above should be potential LAB gains on current England only polling data.

In almost all of the seats in the chart there has been Lord Ashcroft single constituency polling and the latest batch, just before Christmas, of those right at the top of the chart had more CON holds than LAB gains.

This has been reflected in the betting which I hope to incorporate into future versions of this chart.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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After the Bashir move from UKIP to CON Marf gives her view

January 25th, 2015

  • If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.


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    The 22 LAB targets/seats that political scientist, Rob Ford, says could be put at risk by the Green surge

    January 25th, 2015

    Now Miliband might have to secure GREEN-RED tactical voting

    The leading political scientist, Rob Ford of Manchester University, has an analysis in the Observer this morning about the dangers of the current Green party surge to Labour’s GE15 chances.

    The 22 seats, some of them currently LAB held some are targets, are shown above and where on the basis of detailed analysis Ford thinks that Labour might have problems. He writes:-

    “..Labour have performed strongly in such seats in local elections and constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft, and until recently considered many to be very strong pick-up opportunities. The rise of the Greens puts them back at risk, as the disaffected and often idealistic voters Labour had won back may now see the Greens as a more potent outlet for their disaffection than Labour, as well as a closer fit with their social values. Labour often requires a large swing to overcome well entrenched and well organised Lib Dem incumbents, so even a relatively modest leakage to the Greens could make life difficult…”

    My main observation is that we shouldn’t at any stage in the next 101 days underestimate the effectiveness of the big party machines in the key marginals. In most key seats they’ve got the databases and experienced foot-soldiers to help curb seepage of support. The same applies to the Tories where seepage to UKIP could give seats to LAB.

    But there’s little doubt that if the Greens retain a large amount of current support then it will have an impact and LAB will struggle to make the gains that appear to be possible.

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble