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The LDs winning streak continues in the latest round of local elections – now 7 gains in July

July 29th, 2016

Harry Hayfield’s round-up contests in principal auhorities

Newlyn and Goonhavern (Con defence) on Cornwall
Result: Liberal Democrat 247 (24%, no candidate in 2013), Conservative 234 (23% -23%), Yeo (Independent) 163 (16%), Mebyon Kernow 161 (16% -28%), Labour 77 (8% -2%), Tucker (Independent) 75 (7%), Thomas (Independent) 54 (5%)
Total Independent vote: 292 (29%, no candidates in 2012)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 13 (1%) on a notional swing of 23.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Harringay (Lab defence) on Haringey
Result: Labour 1,054 (46% +3%), Liberal Democrat 765 (33% +3%), Green Party 325 (14% -3%), Conservative 99 (4% -2%), United Kingdom Independence Party 36 (2%, no candidate in 2014)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 289 (13%) on no swing between Labour and Liberal Democrats

St Julian’s (Lib Dem defence) on Newport
Result: Liberal Democrat 948 (54% +12%), Labour 432 (24% -22%), United Kingdom Independence Party 156 (9%, no candidate in 2012), Conservative 135 (8% -5%), Plaid Cymru 71 (4%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 25 (1%, no candidate in 2012)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 516 (30%) on a swing of 17% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Carshalton Central (Lib Dem defence) on Sutton
Result: Liberal Democrat 1,250 (43% +5%), Conservative 1,061 (37% +12%), Green Party 211 (7% -1%), Labour 176 (6% -3%), United Kingdom Independence Party 150 (5% -11%), Christian People’s Alliance 29 (1% -1%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 189 (6%) on a swing of 3.5% from Liberal Democrat to Conservative

Droitwich West (Con defence) on Wychavon
Result: Conservative 281 (42% -2%), Labour 161 (24% +3%), United Kingdom Independence Party 132 (20%, unchanged), Liberal Democrat 97 (14% -1%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 120 (18%) on a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour

Summary for July 2016
Labour 12,230 votes (30% +3% on last time) winning 8 seats (-2)
Conservatives 10,305 votes (26% -3% on last time) winning 10 seats (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8,981 votes (22% +11% on last time) winning 9 seats (+7)
Green Party 2,571 votes (6% +1% on last time) winning 0 seats
United Kingdom Independence Party 2,480 votes (6% -5% on last time) winning 1 seat (-1)
Independents 1,919 votes (5% -6% on last time) winning 2 seats (-2)
Plaid Cymru 1,043 votes (3% +1% on last time) winning 2 seats
Other Parties 662 votes (2% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats

* change on last time equals difference between total vote at by-elections and average vote at the last elections

Seats CHANGING HANDS in July 2016
Liberal Democrats GAIN Newquay, Treviglas on Cornwall from United Kingdom Independence Party
Liberal Democrats GAIN St. Teath and St. Breward on Cornwall from Independents
Liberal Democrats GAIN Astley on North Norfolk from Conservatives
Conservatives GAIN Bryam and Brotherton on Selby from Labour
Liberal Democrats GAIN Trowbridge, Grove on Wiltshire from Independents
Liberal Democrats GAIN Westone on Northampton from Conservatives
Liberal Democrats GAIN Totnes on South Hams from Labour
Liberal Democrats GAIN Newlyn and Goonhaven on Cornwall from Conservatives

Local By-election Summary since General Election 2015
Labour 158,769 votes (29% unchanged on last time) winning 88 seats (+3) from 256 candidates (+12)
Conservatives 142,488 votes (26% -2% on last time) winning 100 seats (-15) from 281 candidates (+17)
Liberal Democrats 71,159 votes (13% +3% on last time) winning 40 seats (+13) from 215 candidates (+37)
Scottish National Party 50,106 votes (9% +5% on last time) winning 26 seats (+3) from 31 candidates (-2)
United Kingdom Independence Party 45,297 votes (8% -3% on last time) winning 8 seats (-6) from 197 candidates (+57)
Green Party 29,967 votes (6% -1% on last time) winning 4 seats (+1) from 152 candidates (+26)
Independents 21,207 votes (4% -1% on last time) winning 14 seats (unchanged) fielding candidates in 86 wards (+2)
Plaid Cymru 5,765 votes (1.07% +0.46% on last time) winning 6 seats (+1) from 20 candidates (+7)
Other Parties 15,861 votes (3% -1% on last time) winning 10 seats (+1) fielding candidates in 74 wards (+1)




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WH2016 – updated polling and betting

July 29th, 2016



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Now let’s see if Hillary gets a polling bounce that out does Trump’s last week

July 29th, 2016

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I didn’t stay up overnight to watch Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech at the end of the Democratic convention but it seems to have been well received.

The betting markets have moved a notch back towards here but we need to see a full range of post convention polling before we can start drawing conclusions.

If the polling averages from next Monday onwards are just showing this to be level pegging then Trump could be said to be the winner of the convention season.

On one measure, TV audience ratings, the Democrats have been getting about 15% more viewers than the Republicans last week which is a possible indicator. No figures yet for the final day.

I switched my Trump betting position to Clinton at the start of the week on the assumption that she would get a polling bounce.

One contribution last night that’s getting big attention was this from Muslim man whose soldier son was killed while on duty.

There’ll be much more if this in the next 102 days. Trump is a non conventional candidate fighting in a totally non conventional way. The formal campaign, which starts at the end of the conventions, has begun a month earlier than usual. A lot can happen between now and November 8th.

Trump’s ability to attract media coverage can work for him or against.

Mike Smithson




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Harry Hayfield’s local elections report: What’s happened so far this week & tonight’s preview

July 28th, 2016

Two good performances already for the Lib Dems

RESULT July 26
The Hangers and Forest (Con defence) on East Hampshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 42, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 40)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 983 (69%), Independent 257 (18%), Labour 184 (13%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 37,346 (51%) LEAVE 36,576 (49%) on a turnout of 82%
Candidates duly nominated: Keith Budden (Con), Don Jerrard (Justice and Anti Corruption), Roger Mullenger (Lib Dem), Neil Ownsett (Lab)
Result: Conservative 236 (45% -24%), Liberal Democrat 227 (44%, no candidate in 2015), Justice and Anti Corruption 41 (8%, no candidate in 2015), Labour 17 (3% -10%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 9 (1%) on a notional swing of 34% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

RESULT July 27
Totnes (Lab defence) R on South Hams
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Green Party 3, Liberal Democrats 2, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 19)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Green Party 2,215 E, 1,839 E (33%)
Labour 1,265 E, 1,111, 928 (19%)
Liberal Democrats 1,150 (17%)
Conservative 1,137, 815, 754 (17%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 693 (10%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 349 (5%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 29,308 (53%) LEAVE 26,142 (47%) on a turnout of 80%
Candidates duly nominated: Andrew Barrand (Con), John Birch (Lib Dem), Alex Mockridge (Ind), Alan White (Green)
Result: Liberal Democrat 812 (44% +27%), Green Party 499 (27% -6%), Independent 391 (21%, no candidate at last election), Conservative 137 (7% -10%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 313 (17%) on a notional swing of 23% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

July 28th
Newlyn and Goonhavern (Con defence) on Cornwall
Result of council at last election (2013): Independents 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 8, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebyon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 555 (46%), Mebyon Kernow 529 (44%), Labour 118 (10%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 140,540 (43%) LEAVE 182,665 (57%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Paul Charlesworth (Con), Vicky Crowther (Lab), Rob Thomas (Ind), Rod Toms (Mebyon Kernow), James Tucker (Ind), Maggie Vale (Lib Dem), Kenneth Yeo (Ind)

Harringay (Lab defence) on Haringey
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 48, Liberal Democrats 9 (Labour majority of 39)
Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,683, 1,395, 1,372 (43%)
Liberal Democrats 1,182, 1,139, 878 (30%)
Green Party 657, 572, 558 (17%)
Conservatives 219, 212, 200 (6%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 219, 165, 132 (6%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 79,991 (76%) LEAVE 25,855 (24%) on a turnout of 71%
Candidates duly nominated: Karen Alexander (Lib Dem), Zena Brabazon (Lab), Cansoy Elmaz (Con), Jarelle Francis (Green), Neville Watson (UKIP)

St Julian’s (Lib Dem defence) on Newport
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 37, Conservatives 10, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 24)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,020, 981, 957 (46%)
Liberal Democrats 958, 873, 863 (42%)
Conservatives 299, 266, 243 (13%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 32,413 (44%) LEAVE 41,236 (56%) on a turnout of 70%
Candidates duly nominated: Carol Bader (Con), Andrew Byers (UKIP), Phil Hourahine (Lab), Chris Priest (Plaid), Carmel Townsend (Lib Dem), Mirka Virtanen (Green)

Carshalton Central (Lib Dem defence) on Sutton
Result of council at last election (2014): Liberal Democrats 45, Conservatives 9 (Liberal Democrat majority of 36)
Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 1,634, 1,469, 1,460 (38%)
Conservatives 1,077, 989, 974 (25%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 671 (16%)
Labour 393, 384, 351 (9%)
Green Party 324, 309, 205 (8%)
Christian People’s Alliance 90 (2%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 74 (2%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 49,319 (46%) LEAVE 57,241 (54%) on a turnout of 76%
Candidates duly nominated: Ashley Dickenson (Christian Peoples Alliance), Sarah Gwynn (Lab), Ross Hemingway (Green), Bill Main-Ian (UKIP), Melissa Pearce (Con), Chris Williams (Lib Dem)

Droitwich West (Con defence) on Wychavon
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 39, Liberal Democrats 5, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 33)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,587, 1,201 (44%)
Labour 775 (21%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 724 (20%)
Liberal Democrat 534 (15%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 32,188 (42%) LEAVE 44,201 (58%) on a turnout of 81%
Candidates duly nominated: George Duffy (Con), Alan Humphries (Lab), Adrian Key (Lib Dem), Andy Morgan (UKIP)



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Corbyn remains on the ballot and doesn’t require nominations as Labour donor loses court case

July 28th, 2016

TSE



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US election round-up following Obama’s convention speech and Trump’s call to Russia

July 28th, 2016



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The summer of political turmoil continues: A look back and look forward in latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast

July 28th, 2016

bigben

On the agenda for Keiran Pedley this week:-

  • Should May call an early general election?
  • Corbyn’s battle to hang onto his job
  • Have the Tories become the long-term opposition the to the SNP in Scotland?
  • Can Trump beat Clinton
  • Keiran is joined by two specialist political pollsters: Katy Owen, formerly a Senior Project Manager at Survation and now Programme Manager at Common Vision and Adam Drummond, Head of Political Polling at Opinium.

    You can follow Adam on twitter at @AGKD123 and Katy at @KatyCHOwen.



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    Trump becomes the first main party nominee in more than 40 years to refuse to release his tax returns

    July 27th, 2016

    Even Richard Nixon released his

    Releasing tax returns has become very much part of politics in recent times and has been a well established practice in the US since Watergate.

    Generally they are issued at a time of the candidate’s choosing and become an issue for a day or so before the media moves on to something else. In 2012 Mitt Romney eventually produced a full set going back several years after a prolonged media clamour.

    Today a spokesman for Trump said that he wouldn’t be doing this because they “were still under audit”. Apparently Richard Nixon’s were “under audit” in 1972 and he still released them.

    All this will do is cause speculation to mount as to why not. One theory is that it will highlight his alleged Russian links. Another theory is that it they will show that he is not the multi-billionaire that he makes out to be.

    Who knows? But this is a big negative and will take the sting out of the “crooked Clinton” narrative that he’s been trying to develop.

    Mike Smithson